Molecular In-Depth on the Epidemiological Expansion of SARS-CoV-2 XBB.1.5.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the generation of new variants periodically recurs. The XBB.1.5 SARS-CoV-2 variant is one of the most recent. This research was aimed at verifying the potential hazard of this new subvariant. To achieve this objective, we performed a genome-based integrative approach, integrating results from genetic variability/phylodynamics with structural and immunoinformatic analyses to obtain as comprehensive a viewpoint as possible. The Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) shows that the viral population size reached the plateau phase on 24 November 2022, and the number of lineages peaked at the same time. The evolutionary rate is relatively low, amounting to 6.9 × 10-4 subs/sites/years. The NTD domain is identical for XBB.1 and XBB.1.5 whereas their RBDs only differ for the mutations at position 486, where the Phe (in the original Wuhan) is replaced by a Ser in XBB and XBB.1, and by a Pro in XBB.1.5. The variant XBB.1.5 seems to spread more slowly than sub-variants that have caused concerns in 2022. The multidisciplinary molecular in-depth analyses on XBB.1.5 performed here does not provide evidence for a particularly high risk of viral expansion. Results indicate that XBB.1.5 does not possess features to become a new, global, public health threat. As of now, in its current molecular make-up, XBB.1.5 does not represent the most dangerous variant.

Genome-based comparison between the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 XBB and its parental lineages.

Recombination is the main contributor to RNA virus evolution, and SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic produced several recombinants. The most recent SARS-CoV-2 recombinant is the lineage labeled XBB, also known as Gryphon, which arose from BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1. Here we performed a genome-based survey aimed to compare the new recombinant with its parental lineages that never became dominant. Genetic analyses indicated that the recombinant XBB and its first descendant XBB.1 show an evolutionary condition typical of an evolutionary blind background with no further epidemiologically relevant descendant. Genetic variability and expansion capabilities are slightly higher than parental lineages. Bayesian Skyline Plot indicates that XBB reached its plateau around October 6, 2022 and after an initial rapid growth the viral population size did not further expand, and around November 10, 2022 its levels of genetic variability decreased. Simultaneously with the reduction of the XBB population size, an increase of the genetic variability of its first sub-lineage XBB.1 occurred, that in turn reached the plateau around November 9, 2022 showing a kind of vicariance with its direct progenitors. Structure analysis indicates that the affinity for ACE2 surface in XBB/XBB.1 RBDs is weaker than for BA.2 RBD. In conclusion, at present XBB and XBB.1 do not show evidence about a particular danger or high expansion capability. Genome-based monitoring must continue uninterrupted to individuate if further mutations can make XBB more dangerous or generate new subvariants with different expansion capability.

Genome-based survey of the SARS-CoV-2 BF.7 variant from Asia.

The SARS-CoV-2 BF.7 variant represents one of the most recent subvariant under monitoring. At the beginning of the 2023 it caused several concerns especially in Asia because of a resurge in COVID-19 cases. Here we perform a genome-based integrative approach on SARS-CoV-2 BF.7 to shed light on this emerging lineage and produce some consideration on its real dangerousness. Both genetic and structural data suggest that this new variant currently does not show evidence of an high expansion capability. It is very common in Asia, but it appears less virulent than other Omicron variants as proved by its relatively low evolutionary rate (5.62 × 10-4 subs/sites/years). The last plateau has been reached around December 14, 2022 and then the genetic variability, and thus the viral population size, no longer increased. As already seen for several previous variants, the features that may be theoretically related to advantages are due to genetic drift that allows to the virus a constant adaptability to the host, but is not strictly connected to a fitness advantage. These results have further pointed that the genome-based monitoring must continue uninterruptedly to be prepared and well documented on the real situation.